Hot Air » Blog Archive » Gulp: Hoffman’s net favorable rating among Scozzafava supporters at … -42
A not so minor detail from the crosstabs to this morning’s earthquake poll, overlooked by many but not by Nate Silver. The good news? Scozzafava voters dislike the Democrat, giving him a favorable rating of just 19/50.
The bad news? That’s actually higher than they rate Hoffman.
What the hell is wrong with Allah? I swear to god he’s turning into some sort of concern troll for the GOP/RINO conventional wisdom.
Yesterday, when I posted my call for Dede to drop out, I said without her Hoffman would win in a walk.
Today, despite Allah’s worried, concerned moans, it looks as if that is exactly what will happen:
Public Policy Polling: NY-23 Polling Odyssey
So this morning around 10 AM I started up our NY-23 poll and after a few hundred interviews it appeared that Doug Hoffman was now running away with it-unweighted numbers showed him at 45% to 26% for Bill Owens and 17% for Dede Scozzafava.
Read the rest. It deals with the expected caveats.
I’ve said previously that openly biased journalism is preferable to the hidden bias of the MSM we endure today, but I think henceforth we should always read Allah with the notion in the back of our minds that he’s pretty much in the tank for the Anybody But Palin/Conservatives gang. He’s a lot more understandable from that perspective.
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Thanks for the nasty insinuation, Bill. I love having my integrity disparaged. That PPP poll was based on a tiny sample of roughly 200 people, fyi; it wasn’t even a complete survey. If you want to push polls on your readers where the margin of error is likely in double digits just because they tell you what you want to hear, have at it. I’ll stick with the Siena poll, predicting a close race — which Hoffman certainly could win. And for the record, I hope he does.
You’ve been earning every bit of it. The disparagement, that is. Climb down off your high horse. And, once again, if you weren’t blinded by your own prejudices, you’ll understand why it won’t even be close on Tuesday. Even your co-blogger Morrissey understands that.
I am prejudiced. But I admit it.
Yeah. Stick with a poll taken before Scozzafava resigned. That way you can push your own completely unbaised version that Hoffman might well lose.
Once again: It won’t even be close on Tuesday. Hoffman will stomp Owens. Wake up and smell the coffee. If you can.
I don’t understand your confidence, Bill. Just like few of Hoffman’s voters would be willing to vote for Scozzafava, I kind of expected many if not most of Scozzafava’s voters not to be willing to vote for Hoffman. These voters did go for Obama, right?
I thought the push for Hoffman was worth doing even if it tipped the election to the Democrat, just for the lesson for the GOP. If Hoffman actually wins going away, that will shock me. It will make me think there are a lot more voters as disgusted with the GOP as I am than I expected.
Prepare to be shocked, Matt. ;^)
Actually, Matt, I’ll be shocked if Hoffman doesn’t win going away.
He is, for all intents and purposes, the official GOP candidate now. And he is running in a GOP district. Even during the Obama “landslide” of 2008, the district voted about two-to-one GOP at the congressional level, as it has for decades. In a way, although I called for Dede to resign, and she immediately did so, for my purposes it would have been better to see Hoffman beat her and Owens - and do it with a five to ten percent margin, as I think he would have done.
As it is now, his victory will be spun by the left as “business as usual, an easy fascist win in a historically fascist district.”
But GOP congressmen who are still tethered to reality will note that a conservative ran a GOP stalwart right into retirement even before the election.
For every point that Hoffman’s victory increases, it will become that much harder for Obama’s socialist agenda to actually make it through Congress.
Not only will the GOP be given the only sort of goad to stand firm that it understands - fear - but the Dems in shaky districts will also be getting the message.
You know what Davenport’s Law of Everything is? It goes, “No politician will ever get a better job outside of politics.”
That drives everything about our political system.
Well dang. I get off the plane on the other side and find that Bill has pushed the scozzbug to resign. Good work Bill.
Interesting reply by AP, Bill. He routinely gets beat up as RINO squish over at Hot Air, but I assume he’s just learned to ignore it. Apparently, such words from you actually piss him off.
I still give AP lots of slack, as I’ve been a long time fan. But he and I have different ideas of where the GOP should go. It’s obvious that his views differ from many at Hot Air. He should simply own it and move on.
I was reading an article on mises the other day talking about how papers and such were always biased prior to the early 20th century progressive movement. People always knew what they were getting, and liked it that way. Then the progressives came up with this “unbiased” news concept (we have to be “fair”), which of course, became increasingly less hostile to the State (and as we know, was still always biased).
It’s all just another progressive snow-job.
Well, I do, too. I was pretty polite in my post. You know I can be a lot “nastier” if I feel like it.
Either that, or his readers should. As I say, I read Allah, but my presumption is that his biases are exactly as I stated.
Hell, his “quotes of the day” yesterday consisted of one cheering on the conservatarian revolt and Doug Hoffman, and four from such sources as Frank Rich and the NYT prophesying disaster for the GOP if this sort of thing continues.
No selection bias there, though, of course, of course.
Bill it looks like you may have called this one right. Hoffman up by 17.