Here’s the calculus: It has become obvious that in a straight head’s up race between Conservative Doug Hoffman and Democrat Bill Owens, Hoffman would win in a walk. It is equally obvious that there is no set of circumstances under which the GOP candidate, Dede Scozzofava, can win this election.
However, if she stays in, the race for victory remains close between Hoffman and Owens. Therefore, Scozzofava should drop out today. The bottom line is that if Scozzofava stays in, it is only to act as a spoiler to defeat Hoffman, at the behest of the national and state establishment GOP that is sponsoring her.
So I suggest that all those GOP titans who have jumped on the Hoffman bandwagon immediately demand the Dede Scozzofava resign from the race, so that a Hoffman victory can be assured.
Otherwise, she and her backers will stand exposed for exactly what they are: politicians who value their own control of the GOP more than they value defeating Democrats and/or electing conservatives to office.
UPDATE: Welcome, Instapundit readers!
UPDATE: Poll - Should Dede drop out? I just voted. (via Dan Maloney - thanks!)
MAJOR UPDATE: Scozzafava Drops Out.
UPDATE: Welcome back, Instapundit readers!
UPDATE: I suspect this is exactly right:
Scozzafava drops out « Don Surber
Rob says:
October 31, 2009 at 11:31 AMGood for her. It was the right thing to do. My guess is that Hoffman now has it in the bag.
BTW, I suspect her motives were not pure. I am guessing she got pressured out by moderates because getting creamed by Hoffman would give strength to the conservatives. Better to refocus this race on conservatives versus dems instead of rinos versus conservatives.
UPDATE: Too late, Newt:
Newt Gingrich (newtgingrich) on Twitter
Scozzafava dropping out leaves hoffman as only anti-tax anti-pelosi vote in ny 23 Every voter opposed to tax increases support doug hoffman
Frankly, I have no respect for those like Newt, Huckabee, or Romney who may try to jump on the Hoffman bandwagon now, after either refusing to endorse him, or, like Newt and the GOP establishment, actively opposing him.
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I believe that they see that as a feature, not a bug.
However, if she stays in, the race for victory remains close between Hoffman and Owens.
Wouldn’t this also set the stage for Democrats demanding a recount if the race is especially close? Once that starts, I’m sure Owens votes will begin to appear out of many and varied places…
I’ve become something of a conspiracist since the “O” took office but could this be a feature not a problem of the Scozzafava nomination?
If she stays in and Owens beats Hoffman in a squeker, we need to remember who the GOP bigs were who set her up and then didn’t get her out when the handwriting was on the waill…. esp Gingrich who was great in 1994 and totally wussed out thereafter, and supoposedly thinks he deserves consideration for President
Bill, you make a cogent point (namely, that Hoffman’s prospects would be boosted by Scozzofava’s withdrawal). But it isn’t clear why you think the GOP owes deference to Hoffman. What do Republicans care if he losses? In fact, if the GOP is just a low-calorie version of the Democratic Party, it might not want Hoffman to win.
If I were as personally greedy as the Scozzofava Republicans, I’d say I want her to stay in, in hopes that Hoffman wins anyway, so I can say to all of them: “We conservatives don’t need either you moderate Republicans, or Democrats, to win. But you Republicans cannot win without us.”
But I’d rather just see Dede drop out, so that Hoffman’s election becomes a sure thing. Unlike the GOP, electing conservatives is a matter of principle for me.
Take one for the team?
That mantra has gone out of style a long time ago. Both parties are more interested in the well oiled machine, despite the fact that the wheels are not on the track anymore. Hoffman could be the premonition of things to come when conservative can be worn as a badge of honor and the GOP is left holding the bag.
“immediately demand that Dede Scozzofava resign from the race”
I guess Peggy Noonan’s keyword today, “callous”, struck a chord with me, and caused me to review how our national behavior has devolved these last few years. Must we “demand”?
Surely these two camps share enough common interest that a reasonable conversation can take place instead of confrontation. Can we not give Scozzafava and her Republican backers the opportunity to agree to step down, for the greater shared good that can bring?
What a big person she would turn out to be, if she did so with grace and of her own accord.
Added you as an update.
Carol: Bwahahahahahahahahahahaha…
You are joking, right?
Carol, you should remember that, in the case of the GOP folks involved here, you’re talking about people who’ve been actively campaigning against the only guy in the race who’s genuinely conservative. If you were to ask them, I seriously doubt that they would admit to having any “common interest” with Hoffman’s campaign.
The opportunity is already there - just don’t hold your breath waiting for it; you might not look too good with a blue face. It’s almost down to the finish line. It seems highly likely that Dede & Co. will hang on to the end.
Then, if Hoffman squeaks out a win, the GOP will either try to write it off as an “anomaly” and cordially ignore Hoffman, or grudgingly embrace him and try to claim that they “originally supported him” - before they opposed him.
If he loses, stand by for GOP-generated wails of dismay about “destructive third-party efforts” that “split the vote” and “only serve to allow the wrong people to win.”
Nice that you would think so - and I (along with, I think, many others) would be pleasantly surprised if she did pull out. Were I you, though, I wouldn’t put any money on it, unless you like losing bets like that.
But Dede is bitter at Hoffman. She doesn’t care about principles or her party. She wants Hoffman to lose.
I’m certainly not surprised. I know nothing personal about Scozzafava, but I’m betting she’s a baby boomer. She has probably already convinced herself that pulling out would have no effect on the election.
For Conservatives, it’s a win-win. If Hoffman wins, they can crow that they were able to win as a third party. If he loses, they can blame it on the RINOs.
she won’t drop out for the same exact reason she entered the race. She wants a liberal Democrat to win. if it can’t be her, then she will settle for Owens.
Been a Democrat all my life until last year, don’t think we don’t recognize a liberal when we see it. I was always a fair minded Democrat, not liberal or leftist and I wouldn’t have voted for Dodo if she ran under the Democratic ticket, never mind running under the Republican ticket.
Heads up Republicans, start running your candidates under the Democratic ticket too, just change your party affiliation and not your beliefs, just like the Democrats and Liberals do
Carol, you are joking, right?
We ran a poll on whether Dede Scozzafava should drop out of this race three days ago.
97% of readers responded yes.
If you want to vote the poll is here:
http://nygoe.wordpress.com/2009/10/27/doug-hoffman-widens-lead/
Just one question: Where are the calls for Dagget to drop out in NJ?
The other three percent were likely all Democrats supporting Owens, I should imagine…
I don’t think he is even a professed Republican any more, but sure. It would be great if he walked away. I wouldn’t vote for him under any circumstances, though. He’s a tool of Big Eco.
How about a carrot instead of a stick? Scozzafava carried water for Pataki and the rest of the NY GOP, which happens to be quite comfortable with their (ahem) middle-of-the-road sinecure. Scozzafava needs a reason to drop out other than ‘the good of the party’ since she’s been doing stuff for the good of the party for years - the party just happened to be pretty useless and RINO-prone. She has no incentive to drop out right now. But an incentive can be given to her by folks in Albany, if they were willing. If not. . . well then you know what the NY GOP is all about.
Well, actually, we already knew what the NY GOP is all about. Much of the rest of the GOP establishment, too.
Nah, carrots don’t leave marks. I say we beat her with a stick.
Depends on how big of a carrot you use, right?
Now, that would leave a mark or two…
Dede has resigned, but not thrown her support to Hoffman! Heh! She is a party hack….nothing more…
When Hoffman wins, that’s gonna send a *big* message to the GOP machine:
1) Republican voters call the tune, not the party bigwigs
2) Republicans would rather lose and let the Democrats destroy the country rather than elect RINOs that cheerfully assist them in doing so.
This GOP bullsh!t is over. I’m done believeing their “small government” lies. Bush DOUBLED the national debt in 8 years and Republican politicians were only too happy to do so.
I’m curious to see how the polling breaks down after this. The whole idea of me-too RINOism is to steal off Democrat votes. So unless the RINOs were always 100% wrong about this (which I doubt) we should expect to see some of this particular RINO’s support go back to the Democrat.
Just how much of her support goes back to the Dem will tell an interesting story. This will be a nice hard data point to show just how well RINOism works vs. principled conservatism.
And thanks, Ms. Scozzawhatever, for not throwing your support to Hoffman. Wouldn’t want to skew the sample.
MM, Ed Morrissey has some thoughts on your question. He’s saying it’s a huge plus for Hoffman. I predicted that as well in the post above.
If Scozza had ENDORSED Hoffman, I might have had an ounce of respect for her. Unfortunately, she only cited a lack of money as her reason for dropping out.
Newt: “Scozzafava dropping out leaves hoffman as only anti-tax anti-pelosi vote in ny 23 Every voter opposed to tax increases support doug hoffman”
Well, Newt, seeing how Hoffman was the only anti-tax anti-Pelosi candidate when Scozza was running, I guess in a sense you are correct, although in a misleading way that smells like you are trying to cover your arse.
This is interesting, because apparently contributions from the RNC made up the bulk of her funds. They must have pulled the plug. There were rumors three days ago that RNC ads had shifted away from mentioning/supporting her to just attacking Owens.
Glad you caught that, Dave. I was gonna post something about Newt’s odd wording later, but I thought it had something to do with later justification - “I only supported Dede because she was a vote against Pelosi and higher taxes.”
As you point out, how he arrived at that is more than a bit, um, mysterious.
NY-23 is looking more and more like another of those “trapgates of history” (de Chardin) that come along from time to time.
In analogy with a prior trapgate of history, the Scozzafava drop out is like Col. Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain of the 20th Maine preparing to order “fix bayonets”.
The charge down the hill next Tuesday should be a sight to behold.
” I have no respect for those like Newt…” who stand by their endorsements instead of running out on them when the politics becomes a tad unfavorable, eh? So, what’s that kind of “respect” worth, Bill Quick? (Please be as precise in your answer as you can, measured to the nearest bucket of warm spit.)
There is an excellent poli-sci research project in the offing. One goal would be to determine where Dede’s votes go. If the establishment big-tent GOP is right, more of them should go to Owens than would have been expected based on party registrations.
Another goal would be to determine the post-dropout independent voter split.
(Edit by J.S.Bridges, 2:12 P.M. EST, 10/31/09)
Rats!
That should read: …big-tent GOP is right…
Stupid keyboard!
(Fixed it for you, deanz1 - you have my sympathy; my keyboard doesn’t write any better than I do, either. J.S.Bridges)
Funny. “Warm spit” pretty much describes my estimate of the relevance of shit sandwich gobblers like yourself to the resurgence of the GOP.
Fuck off and die, like your pal Dede who, apparently, was just drowned in a bucket of “warm spit.”
deanz, I plan to come back and take a look at all of that after the election. Morons like Mucka Eewy seem to think they still control the GOP. They’re going to get shoved over to the Dems, and good riddance. We’ll replace them with conservatives and libertarians.
They just hate the notion that they are irrelevant to the GOP, but they are. Let them go take their chances among the ethnic plantations and bought constituencies of the Socialist-Democrat party.
Perhaps the one aspect of this ‘turn of events’ that is being overlooked is the power and relevance of a conservative third party. Bill’s initiative to promote a conservative party would now appear to have been proven quite astute. (Granted the ACP was not Hoffman’s party, but they did support him.) New York apparently has several parties.
I admit to being pleasantly surprised to be incorrect in my estimation of Scuzzyflava’s staying-power; however, based upon the mode of (and the highly-likely reason behind) her departure, she would not appear to be due any favorable notice for her rather lame (and belated) swan-song.
Although Hoffman’s odds may have measurably improved, it’s not over yet - Newt’s equally-lame change of direction to the contrary, it remains to be seen if enough ex-Scuzzyflava-boosters will accrue to the only real conservative’s support in time.
Here’s hoping…
As for silly yobs like Micha - “…stand(ing) by their endorsements…,” where such endorsements are errant, self-serving bullshit to begin with, is…simply more bullshit. As such, it warrants even less “respect” than the original endorsement - except, perhaps, in the dim, vacant recesses of silly yobs’ spit-bucket “minds.”
Roast beef on weck is better than a shit sandwich anyway.