The FRC vs. the GOP - Ramesh Ponnuru - The Corner on National Review Online

I disagree with Perkins on a few other matters as well. It is a misreading of the 2006 and 2008 elections to suggest that they show the folly of trying out “new ideas” (what new ideas were tried?). And a political figure’s ability to excite conservatives does not prove his or her ability to assemble a national majority. I am certainly not one of the people who want to blame social conservatives for recent Republican failures. But the people who do take that view have never denied that Palin or Huckabee appeals to many conservatives. They deny that they can forge a majority coalition including conservatives and moderates.

Usual faux-conservative BS from an NRO regular. Ramesh seems to think that conservatives are ipso facto a minority that “needs to forge alliances with moderates” in order to win.

So how does he deal with this?

LiveLeak.com - 60% of Americans Considered Themselves CONSERVATIVE

The Battleground Poll, the most respected and thorough of all public opinion polls, released its latest results on August 20th. Although many people read this poll for the data on voter preference in upcoming elections, for voter opinions More..about the two major political parties, for what things matter most to voters, I always zip past this data in the first fifteen pages of poll results and go straight to Question D3, which very quietly and totally ignored proclaims the biggest missing story in American politics and which is the only story, in the long run, that really matters.

I have been tracking Question D3 for a long time, since June 2002, in thirteen straight Battleground Poll results. Americans respond to this question more consistently than to any other question in those thirteen Battleground Poll surveys. People many change their opinions dramatically about Iraq or President Bush or drilling for oil, but not their answer to Question D3.

The Battleground Poll is different. It is bipartisan. A Republican polling organization, the Terrance Group, and a Democrat polling organization, Lake Research Partners, collaborate in picking the questions, selecting the sample population, conducting the surveys, and analyzing the results. The Battleground Poll website, along with the raw data, is “Republican Strategic Analysis” and “Democratic Strategic Analysis.” There are few polls that are bipartisan. No other polling organization asks the same questions year after year, none that reveal the internals of their poll results so completely, and none ask anything like Question D3 in every survey. What is Question D3 and what were the results to Question D3 in the August 20, 2008 Battleground Poll? It is this:

“When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be…

Very conservative

Somewhat conservative

MODERATE

Somewhat liberal

Very liberal

UNSURE/REFUSED”

In August 2008, Americans answered that question this way: (1) 20% of Americans considered themselves to be very conservative; (2) 40% of Americans considered themselves to be somewhat conservative; (3) 2% of Americans considered themselves to be moderate; (4) 27% of Americans considered themselves to be somewhat liberal; (5) 9% of Americans considered themselves to be very liberal; and (6) 3% of Americans did not know or refused to answer.

Sixty percent of Americans considered themselves conservative. Does this mean that most Americans do not know what “conservative” means? No: The question specifically provides an out to people who are not sure about their ideology; it provides an out to people who want to be considered “moderate.” Americans reject those choices. They overwhelmingly define themselves as “conservative.” This is a huge political story - except that it is not “new” at all. Look at the thirteen Battleground Poll results over the last six years, and how do Americans answer that very question? Here are the percentages of Americans in those polls who call themselves “conservative” since June 2002: 59% (June 2002 poll), 59% (September 2003 poll), 61% (April 2004 poll), 59% (June 2004 poll), 60% (September 2004 poll), 61% (October 2005 poll), 59% (March 2006), 61% (October 2006), 59% (January 2007), 63% (July 2007), 58% (December 2007), 63% (May 2008), and now 60% (August 2008.)

Ronald Reagan didn’t win by “reaching out” to moderates or leftists. He won by energizing the natural conservative leanings of the conservative American majority through proclaiming his own conservatism in bright, clear, down-to-earth terms, leading them to vote for him.

The GOP ought to try something similar one of these days. So should Ramesh Ponnuru.

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