Folks, I’m starting to hear some rather worrisome things about the influenza outbreak, to the effect that the US agencies involved are way behind the ball on handling this, and that a lot of energy is being expended on CYA (ass-covering) memos, which is not a particularly good sign.

We may end up using the internet as a primary source of information, rather than trusting to government actors that may not have straightforward agendas on this matter.

Therefore, I’m going to sticky this to the top of the blog and leave it there until we have a better handle on this thing.

Editors, please feel free to add new or important info directly to this post by editing it with new updates - put a time/date stamp on your updates, if possible.

Readers, if you have new or important info you’d like to keep us posted with, simply add it as a comment.

Let’s hope nothing comes of this. But if something does, we need to do as much as we can to help each other out.

For starters, while there is a mildly panicked overtone to Drudge’s site on this, he is posting a lot of stuff. It’s a good place to start. Also, you can get the official releases from the Centers for Disease Control.

UPDATE: Chef Mojo - April 27 - 0830

Interesting and disturbing look at events in Mexico City from BBC website commenters in Mexico. One example:

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from “under control”. As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City 

There are a number of other comments from doctors. Common thread; virus is not responding to antivirals and the government is downplaying mortality. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in that respect; medical professionals bypassing the government and media to get their information out via the web.

BBC NEWS | Have Your Say | Swine flu: Your experiences

I’m a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

(via Instapundit)

These reports from medical doctors working in Mexico about the ineffectiveness of antivirals (Tamiflu, Refrenza) and vaccines are quite worrying. Also the reports of staff and medics being infected. This is a classic pandemic formulation: The disease causes the medical treatment system to collapse by acting as a focus for contagion and eliminating the medics who can treat it.

UDPATE: Here’s a link to a Google Mapping of confirmed cases.

UPDATE 4/27/09-11:50 PDT: California school closes in possible swine flu case | U.S. | Reuters

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A California school was shut down on Monday after a student became ill with a possible case of the swine flu that has killed up to 149 people in Mexico, local health officials said.

St. Mel’s Catholic School in the Sacramento suburb of Fair Oaks was closed while samples were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Sacramento Public Heath Division spokesman Kerry Shearer told Reuters.

UPDATE: 4/27/09 - 12:00PM PDT: CDC: No vaccine prevents the new swine flu

ATLANTA (AP) - There is no vaccine available to prevent the new swine flu. However, there are antiflu drugs that do work once someone is sick.

The acting head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the government is still deciding whether to order that a swine flu vaccine be produced.

Dr. Richard Besser says it’s not an easy decision, because vaccine manufacture takes a long time and would interrupt ongoing work to create next winter’s regular flu shot.

But if a vaccine eventually is ordered, the CDC already has taken a key preliminary step—creating what’s called seed stock of the virus that manufacturers would use.

So, how long is a long time?

Try six months.

UPDATE 4/27/09 - 1:25PM PDT: Mexico’s Flu Death Toll Rises, While U.S. Confirms 40 Cases - WSJ.com

In Mexico, the outbreak’s center, soldiers handed out six million face masks to help stop the spread of the virus. Nearly 2,000 people in Mexico have been hospitalized with serious cases of pneumonia since the first case of swine flu was reported two weeks ago.

This pneumonia figure is just now being reported.

UPDATE: Chef Mojo - April 28 - 0150 EDT: My source informs me of the following: Flu is the Alpha Strain, which would be the f1n1 and n2 and n3. This can mutate quickly. In the US, 3 “hot spots” have been identified: NY with the school, Ohio in Columbus, OSU, and now in California with the UCLA area. Saying that spring break trips may have brought this back to the US, where it’s been swimming around and mutating. Keep your ears to the ground if you live in college towns and students went to Mexico for spring break.

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