Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”
The “undecideds” have awakened, noticed there is a coronation going on in the morning newspaper they read once a month, and on the Daily Show, SNL, and other “news” shows they watch, and are swinging to the Messiah.
I’m looking forward to being able to vote for Nancy Pelosi’s replacement in 2010. Even San Francisco may be ready to turn away from socialism and liberal fascists by then.
I see a “perfect storm” beginning to coalesce: A social collapse, a political collapse, a financial collapse, and an economic collapse. As I have noted before, at the time of the Soviet collapse, I didn’t believe it was evidence of a resurgence of liberty, but rather a result of the global move from an industrial era to a post-industrial, info-age world. And I wondered when the United States’ turn would come.
It’s here.
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Interesting how Zogby appears to be the only one showing a tidal wave of support for Obama right now. Of course, if he succeeds in depressing GOP turnout, he will have created his own self-fulfilling, buy my polling service, prophecy.
Sure, Barry might win, but this country is in deep shit if he wins with a Reaganesque margin.
I promise to cut the size of govco in half if I win.
I wouldn’t pay much attention to Zogby. He’s in the tank for hussein. “Down 2 in armed forces households”? When other polls show armed forces members for McCain at 75%? Maybe Zogby is polling the 10 year olds in the household.
Add Sarah Palin to your ticket and you’ve got my vote. The thought of voting for McCain makes me throw up in my mouth a little.
Aw, come on, PG. We deal in reality here, not wishful thinking.
Well, that’s one way of putting it.
Interestingly, almost all of the polls tend to over estimate Dem support before the election by 2%-6%. Almost none over estimate GOP support. I will grant you that this is a bad year for Republicans, but I’m having difficulty believing some of the numbers I’m seeing. Not due to wishful thinking though, because I’m not a McCain supporter. But moldy sock candidate Bob Dole was supposed to lose VA by 4%-5% and he won by 4%. The northern part of the state has changed in recent years (more Dc wonks live there), but Obama needs to be +5 going into election day or he will not carry this state. I could be proven wrong and will eat crow if I am.
I make no predictions as yet about the overall race, except that a strong possibility exists that things are a couple of points closer than everyone thinks. Bob Dole says, “Polls saying I’m down by double digits are wrong. Bob Dole is going to lose by only 8%.”
I have class to teach on November 4 and it’s possible that the winner is known before I get home. But if-and it’s a big if- McCain holds serve in NC, VA and FL, the evening could be interesting. If he loses all 3 of those states, I’ll turn off the TV and start drinking. Actually, I should quit my job, because Obama will give us all magic ponies that shit money and piss electricity. Plus, the ponies can fly, so I’ll be able to get to work with no gas. Sadly, the ponies fart like crazy, and methane is a greenhouse gas, so the climate nuts will kill them all on day 2. But day 1? It’s gonna be great.
PG, all that said, I was responding to your claim that this was the only poll showing a big bulge for Obama. That simply isn’t true.
The accuracy of those polls, or their predictive ability, is another issue entirely.
I’d find it a lot more believeable if they weren’t screaming ‘racism’ and threatening riots.
It really sounds like they’re trying to OJ Obama into office–by threat of violence.
Why did McCain campaign in Penn? It’s supposed to be solidly blue. A lost cause.
I think both campaigns internals are showing something VERY different than what the pollsters are saying–and, considering the increasing shrillness of the MSMs calls for an Obama coronation, I bet McCain is looking better and better on those internals.