POLL SHOWS, AFTER 30 YEARS, PROP. 13 STILL WINNER WITH VOTERS. | Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
A just-completed survey of California voters shows that Proposition 13, Howard Jarvis’ landmark tax limitation measure approved by two-to-one in 1978, has overwhelming support today.
The survey of 801 voters, conducted by Arnold Steinberg and Associates, Inc. reveals that about 48 percent support Proposition 13 while 20 percent are opposed and about 32 percent are undecided. When provided with information about what Proposition 13 does — placing limits on annual property tax increases and requiring voter approval of new local taxes — support swells to landslide proportions with 60.4 percent in favor, 26.6 against and 13 percent undecided.
This is a perfect example of why most “opinion” polls aren’t worth the crap they’d be better used to wipe.
Most polls never get beyond the first set of responses - which include about a fifty percent “dumbass factor,” that is, responses from people whistling out their fundaments who are entirely clueless about the questions they are answering.
And, frankly, why anybody should pay any attention to “opinions” from clueless ignoramuses - “I dunno what you just said, but I’m against it” - is beyond me.
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William Safire pointed out the dark secret of polls - the very high refusal rate, which is never revealed. Even if the pool is representative, a high refusal rate would dramatically skew the results. Look at the number of respondents in this poll - 801. That’s a pretty small sample. I wonder how many refusals there were.
As for Prop 13 itself, one of the things that came out of the SCOTUS review was Chief Justice Rehnquist’s comment, “Well, it’s not perfect, but close enough for government work.” I put that up in my cubicle when I was a state engineer.
Many moons ago, to make a bit of cash, I hired out for awhile during the summertime (I was a low-pay schoolteacher - summer “variety” jobs were the norm) doing street-polling for an outfit in Michigan. After awhile, it became apparent that a) most of the time, the answers I got up-front (when the answer wasn’t “Get yer ass outta my way, I’m in a hurry”, or some slightly more-polite variation) came from ignorance on the question being asked, and b) virtually no one asked for additional information/interpretation on the question, even when it was obvious that the respondent was clueless on the question.
My conclusion? Polling without an explanation up front was/is useless as to significant results, since most ordinary just-folks polled on a particular issue are ignorant on the issue and intend to stay that way.
I quite thoroughly agree - which is why I pay about zero attention to polls. They’re a nice way to make some money sometimes, but they’re not a useful predictor of anything in particular…
The next time I get phone-polled, I’m going to give my numerical ranking answers in a repeating cycle: 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1-repeat-until-end. With no additional explanation. Just to see if the pollster comments on it.