InvestorsInsight : Thoughts From The Frontline
That would be consistent with a recently published report by Merrill Lynch Chief Economist David Rosenberg suggesting a 100% probability of a recession. Reading from his latest writing:“We recently unveiled a new recession probability indicator that uses the shape of the yield curve (10-year note/3-month LIBOR) and corporate spreads (Baa) to predict the probability of a recession within the next 12 months. (The model is based on a recent Fed paper, which used the 10/2-year yield curve and Aa spreads.) The results are striking: taking into account corporate spreads, the model is flashing a 100% chance of a recession in the next year, up from 75% in October and essentially zero in the summer. Looking at history, the model did a pretty good job predicting the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions. In December 1989, recession odds jumped to 95%, and by August 1990 an official recession had set in. Similarly, the model was showing 100% recession odds in October 2000; by September 2001, the economy was in an official downturn.”
If this model is accurate, it is saying that the US will officially be in recession right around the time Americans go to the polls next November.
What does this mean? Well, we were moving into the Clinton recession when we went to the polls in 2000, but somehow the Teflon Bill avoided blame for that one, and it became, thanks to yeoman’s work by the MSM, the Bush recession. This one will also be hung around Bush’s neck, with considerably more reason.
The American voter usually punishes whomever he perceives to be in charge for any economic shortfalls that occur. The MSM has generally portrayed the US as a banana republic with GWB in sole command (possibly with Cheney or Rove pulling his strings). They have been doing a good job of expanding on that theme vis the Democratic House and Senate, by portraying both of those houses as helpless before the machinations of the evil GOP and the power of the veto pen at the White House. Further, the liberal media will use its vast megaphone to exaggerate even a recession - it will be portrayed as being worse than the Great Depression.
The end result: My guess is that we will see a sweep of Congress and the White House come next year. Get ready for President Obama and a Democratic congress.
Yes, yes, I know. But national polls this far in front of the general election are meaningless. The polls that matter - the ones measuring the elections that are upon us now - show Hillary Clinton in trouble. The most penetrating insight I’ve seen on this phenomenon came from someone I don’t at the moment recall - possibly Michael Barone? - to the effect that the current battleground states are being blanketed with campaign ads for Obama and Clinton, so that the voters in those states are being forced to pay attention. And what we are seeing is that the better they get to know the two candidates, the more they like Obama, and the less they like Hillary.
I think that’s about right - Hillary is a repulsive harridan, after all - and I expect to see the same phenomenon being played out as the stage grows larger and larger.
An even more interesting question: As it becomes more obvious that Obama - not Hillary - will be the Democratic candidate, how will that influence the GOP nomination process? Well, the biggest assets Obama currently has working for him are his likeability, his affability and his passion as a campaigner.
So the GOP will look for a candidate who can match him for affability, combat his populist appeal, and keep the evangelicals in the GOP camp from bolting or sitting on their hands. Yep, the GOP will nominate Mike Huckabee for President. So, who do you think will be the GOP Veep? The logical choice would be either Romney or Giuliani, but would either man accept the second slot?
My guess is no - their best chance is to step aside and hope Obama and the Dems make a hash of things over the next four years, which isn’t really that dumb a bet to make. McCain will make the calculation that he can exert more power in the Senate than as a vice-president, so that’s where he will go. Fred Thompson by default? I think that’s the strongest possibility - Fred is no spring chicken and this might well be his last hurrah - but I would hope he’d turn it down as well. By the time we’re wrapping up the nominating process, I expect the tea leaves about the approaching GOP crash will be pretty obvious, and smart people will run like hell from the oncoming train wreck.
So: Obama and the young hustler, John Edwards, for the Dems, and Huckabee and Some Sacrificial Lamb for the GOP, with the Donks winning in a landslide.
It’s going to be an ugly four years, folks.
UPDATE: Happy holidays and welcome, Instapundit readers!
Submit to Stumbled Upon!
I’ll say it before, and I will say it again. The rush towards singularity will make all of the old economic models useless. This does not mean that economics has changed, it means that the macro measurements used to forecast the future are no longer accurate. By all accounts, we should be in a recession RIGHT NOW, but we are not. I don’t know anyone in my friend-family network that is having any financial issues. If anything, everyone is taking better jobs, and griping because they require more work.
I am ignorant, though. Can anyone point me to an article, or a writer, that could accurately predict the economy a year hence more than once?
You missed one. Like it or not, skin color. Which enhances the other qualities, because it captures the “it’s about time we had a black president” crowd, while his likeability and affability means he doesn’t scare people off, as a Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton would.
If Obama is nominated, expect the “diversity”-promoting part of the MSM (like Gannett and Time) to give him a “double pass.” (They’d already give him a pass for being a Democrat.) Their coverage would become effectively issues-free, concentrating on glamour and emotion (reminiscent of the way they covered the Kennedy election, except moreso).
I don’t buy the analysis….I have been hearing from those in the know that we were going to have recession for close to 3 years….hasn’t happened and it won’t.
We have a solid economy it is not built in a bubble like the tech stocks were….most of those companies in the 90’s had no actual cash….other than the housing “bubble” and that is relative because a large portion of the country is still fine with property values I just don’t see it.
The bulk of speculation going on at this time is in oil and at this time they are again going down.
I personally am satisfied with the way the economy is humming along and in my neck of the woods it appears others are satisfied to.
Heh, don’t bet against the U.S. economy. The weaker dollar is bringing our hard-won efficiencies to bear, and exports are booming. With so much growth in China, the countries that rely on the U.S. as consumer of last resort are being squeezed. They can’t inflate the dollar against every currency at once.
I remember a year or so ago Bill said an economic tsunami was coming, I disagreed, and Bill challenged me to see who would look silly within one year. Well, I think 2007 turned out fairly well. We weathered the collapse of the housing market, just as we weathered pas cries like the Internet bubble, the S&L crisis, and the October 1987 stock market crash. The fiat currency management perfected by Greenspan has created an incredibly powerful tool for simultaneously managing inflation and supplying liquidity to head off panics.
We live in a Platinum Age, and the greatest wonders are yet to come.
*past crises, not pas cries, above. Sorry.
Can anyone point me to an article, or a writer, that could accurately predict the economy a year hence more than once?
_______________________
Offhand, no, but are certainly a few: it doesn’t require as many economists to predict a single time series as it does monkeys to type Hamlet.
To your other point, we may be in a recession now. It’s in the nature of our economic statistics that we won’t know for a few more cycles.
In case you haven’t yet read them, I highly recommend Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled by Randomness” and “The Black Swan.”
Funny. Ha Ha.
I would like to chime in w/ the economic optimists here. I operate a small manufacturing company, which sells across the country to corporations, and they are happily buying.
I have survived three recessions since the mid-70s, and I know the signs. When corporate America stops buying my product, watch out, becuase next thing they are laying off. Corporate America has plenty of cash now, and is not pulling back at all.
Two sectors are hurting: housing and Wall Street (Look whose writing this gloomy prediction. Thinks he’s scared about his job at Merrill Lynch? Believe me, those emotions color how economists analyze). But there is no spillover, and w/ the export boom and the incredible American efficiency, there won’t be. I’ll bet on it, just based on the current behaviori of my customers.
As one involved in the trucking industry, I read industry publications that basically state that freight has been flat for months now. I don’t know how this translates as an indicator, but slow freight means fewer goods manufactured. Rail freight does not necessarily account for the complete slowdown. For what its worth.
I am in agreement with Jaded. While it is possible that there will be a recession next year, it is far more likely that the MSM will try to do what they did in 1992 - invent “the worst economy since the Great Depression” out of thin air.
But 2008 is not 1992. There are alternative ways for the GOP to make its case to the public which did not exist back then or were tiny compared to today (the Internet, cable TV, talk radio).
The question is - will Republicans become more aggressive? The GOP’s roll-over-and-play-dead-for-the-nice-Democrats campaign in 2006 was a disaster, and Republicans have only slightly improved their tactics since. Now would be an excellent time for Republicans to go on offense and hold Democrats accountable for their record of failure and hyper-partisanship. Democrat defeatism on Iraq would be a good place to start.
There is one other part of the equation that is missing: the Democrat-controlled Congress and its microscopic approval ratings. It is true that those ratings have not yet begun to drag down individual members - yet. But here is another situation where a little aggressiveness on the part of Republicans could work wonders.
While I have some doubts about “100% odds” of an actual recession come election time, I have NO doubts about the MSM’s willingness to cast even a relatively healthy economy heading for a soft landing as the worst calamity since the days of Hoover - if doing so helps a Democrat. So from the standpoint of election-related “news” coverage, the actual state of the economy is irrelevant.
What worries me most about the possibility of a Dem landslide is what they’ll do to maintain their newly regained power. Don’t forget - Dems believe in their hearts that only they “care” about “the people”, and that therefore, only they have the right to hold political power. Once they’ve regained it, they’re going to do what’s necessary to hold onto it permanently. If Obama takes office with strong Democrat majorities in both houses, look for the logs to start rolling within days.
The first step must be the achievement of a decades-long left/liberal majority on the Supreme Court. The older members of the Court’s current liberal wing will see an Obama administration as a sign that it’s safe to retire; if Obama’s smart (& no reason to believe he isn’t), he won’t nominate any replacements older than 50. If Anthony Kennedy can be persuaded to retire, say, by inventing some position related to “international law” for him, there’s your cast-in-stone liberal majority.
At the same time will come imposition of the so-called “Fairness Doctrine”. The Dems have made no bones about their desire to eliminate wide dissemination of any opinions they disagree with. Look for Rush, Fox News, etc. to wind up Gulliverized in so much FCC legal action that they may throw in the towel. If they don’t, the Obama Administration will keep the litigation going until it winds up in front of their newly realigned Supreme Court. If you’re a conservative blogger or an editor at National Review or the Weekly Standard, the Administration will have plans for you, too…can you say “hate-speech laws”, boys and girls? I knew you could! And once the First Amendment is run through the Gramscian shredder, how long do you think the Second will last?
It goes almost without saying that Obama and his new Congress will quickly ram through a massive illegal-alien amnesty plan and gut border enforcement. Friendly judges will invalidate any local initiatives related to immigration enforcement and ballot integrity, enabling the voter rolls to be larded with millions of noncitizens. This means a real possiblity of permanent leftist government on at least the Federal level.
My thoughts on this subject aren’t original. Other people, smarter than me, have invented the term “Soft Dictatorship” to describe what the Democrats may well have in mind for us. These people aren’t going to need armies of jackbooted minions to accomplish what amounts to one-party rule. The combination of media/educational/judicial control represents an “iron triangle” that will keep them in unbreakable power for decades at a minimum.
I have forgotten; which famous economist was it who wrote that he had “predicted 13 out of the last five recessions”? I don’t think it was Friedman….
I _DO_ know that it was Yogi Berra who said that predictions were very hard, especially about the future.
Well, according to Pravda Online, the US is going to dodge this bullet and come out OK in ‘08:
Link.
I don’t doubt that we’re heading for a recession, caused by a combination of the housing slump and inflation.
While the housing bubble was just that, a bubble caused by intense speculation in housing prices, the slump will have an effect on employment and building materials. The jump in food and fuel prices have been having an effect as well. There’s not a lot of slack when people aren’t saving, so there should be a decline in purchasing after the holidays.
My wife and I were in Wal-Mart on the 20th. It’s a supercenter just outside of Harrisburg. She noticed that very little of the Christmas merchandise was moving compared to the same time last year. Then, when she was looking for tree lights, she could not find any. The clerk told her to check out the drug stores (which did have them).
This time, the shelves were packed with lights, as well as all the other accessories. The clerk confirmed that sales are way down this year.
Did the Russians slip some polonium in your coffee today?? Where did this come from, amid your usual pithy and cogent postings?
No way Huck will be the GOP nominee. He’s the Howard Dean of the far right and will flame out just like HD.
Both parties are going to be looking for the “electable” candidate. These races are not over yet — Obama’s got a chance but the GOP field is still wide open.
If this prediction holds true and a gullible, manipulated public grants power and full control of government to the New Democratic Socialist Party, you cannot underestimate the disaster for America and our entire western civilization. It will mean the end and nothing less than a second American Civil War would begin to fix the aftermath.
I’m still backing Fred, but my predictions speak for themselves.
I’m just stuffed with Xmas cheer, but I will remind you that insinuating that I am suffering from some sort of dementia brought on by exotic poisons is not, generally speaking, the best way to preface a comment on my blog.
I will further note that Huckabee may be many things, but calling him “The Howard Dean of the Far Right” is nothing more than hysterical dumbassery. If he most resembles anybody, it is George W. Bush. Yes, of course the race is wide open - a fact I noted in a post only yesterday. Go look up the meaning of “prediction.” It deals with future outcomes, not current states.
I’m sure their prediction of 100% chance of recession is as accurate as the claim that we had a recession in 2001.
Unfortunately for those folks they don’t know the definition of a recession, which is two straight quarters of negative GDP growth. That didn’t happen in 2001, nor did it happen in 2002, nor has it happened in some time in the United States.
But, the media needs bad news and a recession is certainly bad news. So if they can’t have their recession, might as well invent one.
Ive already seen predictions that we are, right now, in a recession. These are the same folks who say Bush is Hitler. It’s not about reality, it’s about re-defining words to make your own reality.
It would appear that the Fed is determined to fight an incipient recession. Now Gurus like Cramer don’t like the timing, but still, the Fed seems not to want the market to tank…the opposite of their take during the tech ‘bubble’.
Should we really be fighting the Fed?
I suspect that, in the final analysis, they will accept a temporary inflationary environment if it means avoiding a deflationary environment. When Congress or the financial system succeeded in purging the bad loans, then the Fed, under more restrictive rules, will raise rates again.
You may be right on your larger points, but Obama-Edwards is not going to happen. A guy whose biggest weaknesses are inexperience and a lack of foreign policy chops is going to pick an inexperienced guy with no foreign policy experience? Not quite. Obama-Richardson makes sense. Obama-Biden would be a lot of fun.
Meanwhile, you’re still picking Huckabee? Sure, evangelicals love him, but he’s so far off the charts with his theocratic rhetoric that he’s got a 25% cap on him. Maybe Huckabee for V.P., but someone else is going to surge in time to take the nomination.
So to paraphrase…The Dems need to win so that they can fuck the country up enough that _real_ conservatism gets a rebound.
I suppose that the historical precedent of Jimmuh Carter resulting in Reagan might be used. But given today’s world political climate it might give new meaning to the Misery Index.
The economy has slowed but is still growing and will continue to grow in 2008 because of the cheap dollar which will spur production and exports. Interest rate spreads are being influenced by the fed injecting money into the banking system to bring liquidity back to the mortgage market, a different scenario than 1999-2000 and 1991-92.The factor that could produce a recession late in 2008 is the fear that one of the current crop of Democrats might be elected President.
BillQ’s: your opening was clear, insightful, and probably has the best chance of any of the alternatives described by your commenters! Loved the term “repulsive harridan”, even had to look it up!! Obama as the likeable, “healer” type of candidate, can peel away enough voters to first beat Hillary, then beat the GOP’s guy, with daily help by the MSM from Feb or March until Nov. By Nov, the moderates (the “deciders” in the election) will believe that the country needs a “healer”……and the MSM will send the message loudly and clearly that Obama will be just fine for foreign policy purposes, if not PERFECT. Of course, they’ll have to downplay the Jihadists’ persistent threat, and Iran’s threat…….but they’ll find a way, don’t you think? Heck, they started 3 weeks ago, by basically corrupting the NIE’s Report…..they built their entire storyline on the first 10 words of the Report and ignored the absolutely frightening content of the succeeding 2 pages!! That’s the liberal MSM style…all for a purpose! They’re about as dumb as a fox! And BillQ, you’re absolutely right that we’re in for a
If the republicans are dumb enough to nominate Huckabee for president, then the Republican Party does not deserve to exist.
Playing to the wing of your party is a prescription for disaster and a key component of the continuing destruction of any form of American centrist politics.
I tend to agree with Maybenot’s assessment of the Dem’s goals and strategy, even while I disagree with his prediction of the likely outcome over the longer term. I do think they will attempt to forge an unassailable package of leftist policy protected by leftist courts and political power. I believe, however, that they will fail.
The American people will live with a lot of bullsh*t, but ultimately will get it right. Maybe it comes in the form of a third party, maybe Republicans ressurect their principles, but I can’t begin to predict. All I can say with any confidence is that I– and the rest of my Boomer cohort– will be exiting this place of wrath and tears bound for the horror of the shade over the next twenty years or so. At long last our poisonous effect on the body politic will begin to wear off. The Boomer-led MSM, so central to the Dem’s ability to push their agenda, will have died off. Younger Americans, untwisted by the anti-Americanism of the Vietnam/Watergate era, are already repulsed by the boundless Boomer narccissism and will reassert the basic common sense principles that made the country great.
It may well be ugly for a few decades, and I’m sorry that I will not see the final lancing of the Boomer boil, but it will happen. It is the genius of freedom.
PD Quig, I wish I shared your optimism on this count. I wrote my screed before I turned in for my beauty sleep, else I might have expanded on Democrat plans for the education system. The Left has been following the Gramscian “march through the institutions” playbook for decades now, and they almost entirely own the public-education system. Take a look at just 20th-century American history as taught in many public schools…WWII consists largely of “Evil Amerikkka interned the Nisei, Evil Amerikkka nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki”. Munich Pact? Rape of Nanking? Bataan Death March? The kids can’t even find these places on a map, much less explain the events that happened there.
The educational system has been deliberately reengineered to create cohorts of graduates who can be driven chiefly by emotion instead of logical thought and intellectual inquiry. I could easily imagine the Democrats using legislation and the courts to make it nearly impossible for parents to exercise homeschooling as an option. Voucher programs and charter schools? Buh-bye…after all, they “drain resources” from the public
reeducation campsschools.“…by September 2001, the economy was in an official downturn.”
Hmm, something about Sep. 2001 rings a bell; can’t quite place it.
All it would take to flush the recession would be for China to revalue/float their currency.
If that happens before the next election, it will change everything.
Yeah, you’re right. An inexperienced Arkansas governor like Bill Clinton would never pick a did-nothing Senator like Al “Who” Gore as a running mate, and if he did, the team would have absolutely no chance of winning.
Can you ever excuse me for formulating such a ridiculous scenario?
…He said with a twinkle in his eye, while honing the big, shiny knife on the sharpening steel…
Bill Quick,
Nice try, but no cigar. “The only thing predictable about the future is that it’s…unpredictable.”
Dare I remind you that at this time last year all “those in the know”:
a) had written off Al-Anbar province as being irretrievably lost to AQI.
b) were “100% sure” that the newly elected Democratic Congress would force a rapid withdrawal–damn the consequences–from Iraq,
c) were laying down large sums in Vegas betting parlors that Pelosi and Reid would rapidly push through, and brow-beat Bush into signing, all kinds of legislation near and dear to their hearts.
Well duh! None of the above happened and, in fact, Congressional approval ratings have now entered the proverbial black hole and are in rapid free-fall toward The Singularity.
As for Obama. “President Obama?” Don’t make me laugh.
Here’s MY “unpredictable prediction”: Obama still isn’t ready for prime-time. Even if he does get the nomination, he’ll have to face a formidable–and much more experienced–Republican candidate who will be ready, willing, and able to debate with the gloves off.
“Mr. Obama, you may subtly compare yourself to John F. Kennedy, but JFK was also a war hero, served in the House for six years, was elected twice to the Senate, and was awarded a Pulitzer Prize. None of which apply in your case.”
Furthermore, we cannot discount the very real possibilities that a) one or more candidates (e.g., Ron Paul) will mount substantial third-party bids and siphon off votes especially from the left side of the spectrum–and b) that a spurned Hillary will sabotage nominee Obama’s candidacy from behind the scenes (”If I can’t have the Oval Office, then neither will you!”). This will add up to a very interesting 2008.
Lastly, if Osama Bin-Laden is either captured or killed by Fall 2008, then all bets are off.
You are, of course, wrong.
How odd, then, that I predicted none of these and, in fact, in the case of the last two, predicted the opposite, as part of my justification for not voting in 2006? I predicted overreach and deadlock, with a Democratic congress crashing against the wall of Bush’s veto pen.
I have been predicting that Iran would win the Iraq conflict, and I’ve seen nothing yet to alter that prediction.
As far as Osama goes, nobody gives a damn any more. The American people more or less regard him as a crazy hiding in a cave somewhere, whose death would be nice, but is no longer very important.
No wonder you sign yourself Anonymous. If my opinions were as stupid as yours, I wouldn’t want people knowing my real name, either.
Who are you paraphrasing, Quilly? Not me, obviously.
Actually, Pravda is merely reporting a press release from the Bush White House.
Oh Bill, was it something I said? Where has the magic gone? Somebody didn’t apply their hemorrhoid cream today.
Thanks for the charming comments, but you’re living proof that while the Constitution protects freedom of speech, it doesn’t protect one from sounding and acting like a utter fool.
Merry Festivus anyway!
Festivus.
As if any more proof were needed to indicate just how much of a dumbass you really are.
And since I now see that you are the “Anonymous” in the post above, you might also give some consideration to having a passing five year old explain to you how to properly operate the terribly complicated DP commenting system.
…For a special this evening, Chef Quick has prepared a lovely Instalanche Tartare, made with prime, eviscerated dumbass commenter, egg yolk, a touch of mustard, onions and capers, all chopped finely together for your bemusement.
After the week I’ve had, it’s nice to relax with a cup of coffee and watch the knife work of a professional.
This is true, but the result hasn’t been quite what they might have hoped. You would think that with this iron grip on education, every generation would be more liberal/socialist than the last. Yet, the college kids and young people in general, at least the ones that I know, are far more conservative than I was at their age. Whether this is youthful rebellion or quite understandable rejection of the ‘Birkenstocks & gray wool sox’ set, it gives me great hope for the future.
Then I look at the state of politics and dispair. Seems our major parties are in a race to the bottom, each trying to be more controlling, more corrupt, and less responsible than the other. Six years of the Republicans controlling the Senate, House, and Presidency wasn’t exactly heaven on earth, I can’t imagine the Democrats could do much worse (although they’d try, they’d really try). The sort of total gridlock we’re seeing right now just might be the preferred state of affairs.
The economy? Well, if those folks at Merrill Lynch are so smart, why aren’t I rich?
“I have been predicting that Iran would win the Iraq conflict, and I’ve seen nothing yet to alter that prediction.”
I think you underestimate the power of freedom and the strength of Shia Arab pride. Did you see the the 300,000-strong petition in southern Iraq denouncing Iranian influence? Did you notice that SCIRI changed their allegiance from Tehran’s power-hungry clerics to the Al-Sistani proto-secularists? Did you see the news stories on the Kurdish pro-women, pro-civil rights rebellion forming in northern Iran?
Iraq’s freedom may destroy Iran; liberal democracy is an infectious meme that is terribly corrosive to repressive autocracies. E Germany survived by closing its border to the free West and build a wall, but millions of Iranians cross to Kerbala every year, and they will start asking why Iraqis have freedoms they lack.
Keep hoping, Dave. Those rose colored glasses look good on you.
But see how this looks through those pinkish specs:
Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses.
In particular, this:
That now dominate Iraq. Seems pretty clear to me - this report, by the way, is dated December 6, 2007 - about two weeks ago.
In addition to recession, we may have rising inflation as well. Republicans can’t survive a bout of stagflation. The only silver lining on the economy is that Republicans can point out that the Democrats’ solution, higher taxes, will make things worse.
Maybenot is right about the Democrats wanting a soft dictatorship. Don’t overlook the unions. If the Democrats get a filibuster-proof Senate, secret ballots for unionization will go out the window.
Interesting set of predictions that bear the unfortunate sign of clear sightedness. For the past seven years, we have seen the MSM campaign time and time again against president Bush, finally hitting pay dirt with Katrina, which ironically, will probably be the best thing that ever happened to the families moved from slums in New Orleans to other parts of the Sun Belt. We also saw what happened when the price of gas went up 50 cents.
Bottom line - we don’t even need a recession, just a decline in growth will be enough for the MSM. On the other hand, when the Dems capture districts in Red states, that does serve to moderate them somewhat.
On the education front - I think the educrats have created a backlash among students. At my son’s school, when a phone was stolen from him, the first reaction from the admin was to blame him for bringing it to school, not the thief. In other cases, they have seen the kids who were attacked suspended with the attackers. Kids have a natural sense of evenhandedness, and they see this violated daily by the liberals in charge of our schools.
History, on the other hand - it will take 100 years to undue the damage.
I have never been of the opinion either party could do much to help the American economy, short of the Fed managing the money supply. They can screw things up like the implementation of wage and price controls or draconian tax increases. Republicans have disappointed me the last four years spending our money like drunken sailors but I trust them a little more concerning taxes. Many Dims border on socialists, unless it’s their personal money. No, IMHO our economy works in spite of our inept Congress.
What really worries me is the amount of consumer debt. I have been warning for at least five years people most folks are living beyond their means and yet the market keeps chugging along. I’m still afraid when the gravy train comes to a halt, it will do so abruptly.
It gives me great hope too Swen, and it indicates solid proof of the vacuity of the “ideas” being foisted upon our youth by a bunch of people clinging to a failed past.