Pajamas Media: The View From Iowa: One Last Look
I find it hard to believe that Huckabee is actually leading in the polls here in Iowa. Every person I spoke with told me that they’re supporting Romney or Thompson and that everyone they knew or worked with (who are also Republicans) feels the same way. None of them have even considered Huckabee as a serious choice. It could be a fluke in the polling process or it could be a fluke in that I know people who are politically aligned with me and they, in turn, know and talk to others who think the way they do. Or it could be a little of both. I don’t really know for sure.
I’ve been suspicious of the almost overnight groundswell for Huckabee, and I think there may be some huge surprises coming in Iowa, especially for Fred Thompson, who just may end up with a very nice belated Christmas present.
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The difference between Huckabee and Romney is the fact that Huckabee lacks is fundings and organization. I’m expected to see Romney win Iowa because he will be able to have his campaign organization bring out the people that are going to vote for Romney to the polls. Huckabee on the other hand does not have those manpower whatsoever. Huckabee’s surge in the polls over the last several weeks does not help him whatsoever. Nor did Huckabee expect to be the guy up on top in the poll numbers. I believe he expected not to win the nomination at all anyways but to influence people to agree with him on certain issues. Now that he’s ahead in the pollings, I would best assume that he’s somewhat unprepared for the Iowa Caucus.
You can see the fundraising numbers here
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp
The accuracy of Rassmussen v. the political calculus of newsweek…
newsweek- huck 39% (10%) undecided.
Rassmussen-huck 39%(10%) undecided.
I’d love to rag on newsweek, but can’t dispute the other source.
This is an interesting dilemma compared to 04. The left of the net were trying to build dean and hyping his chances, while for 08 the conservative side of the web, for the most part, is opposed to huck because he is unelectable. I have a little hope that the conservatives prove more successful in their attempt than the left was in elevating dean.
I think fred showed enough in the last debate, to weaken huck. This isn’t any great favor to the other candidates, as fred is more of a threat to the others long term, when huck fails, than any other candidate.
unless there is some crazy rule about winning Iowa, the winner will go in the books with less than 27%.
I hope you’re right Bill. We’ve already got enough left wing populists in the race (Edwards, Obama) without Huck. I hate to pass judgment so early in the campaign season when we haven’t really gotten to see them perform in crunch time but nearly everything about Huck creeps me out - right down to his Jack T. Chick act on Romney, who I don’t like or respect much either, but don’t think merits a religiously-based whispering campaign.
I think the Huckabee storm is much to do about nothing. The press are playing it for all it’s worth because Huckabee would be an incredibly weak candidate in the General election. And it’s not like they want a Republican win, eh?
At the end of the day, I think Thompson is going to be the nominee. Guliani is a broken record, Romney is too greasy, Huck too pious… The only guy I’d want to share a beer with is Fred.
Perhaps that’s the poll question that needs to be asked to get an accurate idea of who’s going to win.
I’m an Iowa guy, and I only know one person who wants to vote for Huckabee. Unfortunatly it is my wife and it’s only because she has seen him talk on some debate for 10 minutes and thinks he is a nice guy.. That’s it! So I don’t count her as a die hard Huckabee voter. I’m a Fred guy myself and none of the other dudes I hang with are Huckabee guys either.
I’m in my early 30’s and I consider myself a cross between an independant and a republican. This things I care about are border security, low taxes, strong military, and a government hands-off approach. Social issues I don’t give a flip about.
I think the Huckster would make a good Veep nomination, but the GOP is done if he gets the prez nomination.. Only Hillary could potentially save it.
The problem is the polling. Polls still use outdated landline telephone polling. Most people won’t talk to a pollster on the phone. Many people no longer have a landline at all. A clear majority of people have features like caller ID and use answering machines like call screening, and simply don’t pick up the phone for anyone they don’t know.
Polls based on phone surveys are biased towards the opinions of unsophisticated people who haven’t embraced new phone technology.
Kinda sounds like the Huckabase, if you ask me.
On top of it, phone polling is notoriously unreliable in predicting the outcome of a mass kaffeeklatsch.