A DP post earlier today discussed the calm about to flow over Iraq. This was the conclusion:

So Anbar will soon pass for normal (i.e. our casualties there will dwindle) because we surrendered it to the Sunnis who killed our troops and ran us out of there. The south will be quiet because we ceded it to al Sadr and Iran. Baghdad will calm down because our strategically-minded enemies will hunker down while we go through the motions of clearing the place.

Mission accomplished. The whole country is “peaceful” and participates in democratic elections, so we can go home.

The British are getting an early start; today the Telegraph reported the number of British troops in Iraq will be cut from the current 7,000 down to a level of 4,000 by summer. Naturally, they’re deploying the same rhetoric and scenario the Bush administration has been busy fabricating:

Tony Blair is preparing to announce a major reduction in British troops in Iraq as a result of a successful operation to improve security in the southern city of Basra.

Mr Blair said on Sunday that Iraq’s own armed forces and police were now in the main frontline control of security in Basra.

Operation Sinbad - to transfer the lead role to homegrown forces - was complete and had been successful.

Thousands of British troops have been involved in operations with the Iraqi army against rogue police units, local militias and al-Qaeda groups.

But once that is finished large scale military patrols will end.

“Homegrown forces,” indeed. The Brits conceded control of Basra years ago to Iran/al Sadr, and that’s not the half of it. As a quick capsule, here’s a chunk from an August post:

It’s recognized that Iranian proxy al Sadr has already won effective control over the city of Basra and Basrah province, but less well-known that he and Iran have done equally well in Maysan:

Following the attack, Col Williams ordered a halt to patrols in Amara on foot or in lightly-protected Land Rovers until further notice. No fewer than five groups claimed responsibility for the ambush, all identified with Moqtada al-Sadr and his nominees of the Imam Hussein List, which controls the Maysan provincial council. While the cleric has promised to follow the democratic route, not all his supporters agree.

British forces were due to leave Maysan and the neighbouring desert province of al-Mathana early next year, after the general election due to be held in Iraq on 15 December. But they are concerned by recent discoveries of good-quality munitions, including RPGs, land mines, triggering mechanisms and explosives, being brought across the border from Iran.

Al Sadr and Iran are also highly active in Dhi Qar and al Muthanna, where Radio Free Europe assesses that “Like Al-Basrah, it appears that the governorate has fallen into the hands of extremists in the al-Sadr trend who are bent on imposing their vision of Islamic rule on the population.” British forces have already announced a complete withdrawal from al Muthanna.

There are links to more background in the original post, and here’s a map if you want to see where those pieces of the New Persian Empire are.

One other thing. The August post also said:

An eventual partitioning of Iraq is often discussed in terms of three new nations (Sunni, Shiite, Kurd). However, the above suggests that once Iraq’s western, Sunni provinces arrange for armed autonomy, Iraq would start down this road by first being sliced in four: the Kurdish north, Sunni west, Iran-controlled south and the Baghdad region in the middle.

Only the Baghdad area would — temporarily — be under the control of Iraq’s “national” government. Once Coalition forces wind down, Shiites, Sunnis and al Sadr/Iran will likely fight for control of the Iraq’s largest city and the petroleum infrastructure lying to the southeast and northeast.

That, I think, is the proper context for the report mentioned in the earlier post today that “Shiite militias plague Baghdad and increasingly Diyala province.”

As this map shows, Diyala province borders with Iran and contains the petroleum infrastructure northeast of Baghdad, including the main feeder pipeline from Khanaqin. That strategic thrust will soon bring Iran/al Sadr into direct conflict with the Kurds, which may help explain why Kurdish units are heavily involved in the clearing operation now underway in Baghdad.

While the Coalition is steadily turning over control of Iraq to, well, whoever happens to be strong there, Iran/al Sadr is setting up shop to complete the job of grabbing the parts they want once we’re out of the way. The more peaceful our enemies can make Iraq appear, the quicker Bush and Blair will leave.

Iran has another extra-special interest in seeing our contingent draw down. Besides opening the way for Iranian expansionism throughout the region, our departure will reduce our scope for taking action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Each fresh retreat by the West brings Iran’s bomb a step closer to reality.

Submit to Stumbled Upon!