Hot Air » Blog Archive » Assessing Iraq
2. Leaving Iran alone. An intelligence officer in Iraq (not at Camp Justice), used the phrase “uninterrupted flow of weapons and ammunition” when I asked him how much Iran was influencing the violence in Iraq. The fact is, Iran has been sending more and more weaponry into Iraq in the past year to 18 months, and it has been assisting the insurgents and the militias (Shia and Sunni alike) in supplying what the Army calls “explosive force projectile” IEDs. These EFP-IEDs are easily hidden and incredibly destructive, and their construction is simply beyond the ability of the warring groups within Iraq. Iranian Hezbollah and Revolutionary Guard trainers have been directly assisting and training the militias as well, making them more dangerous to the Iraqi Army, the Iraqi people and to our troops. Iran must be dealt with and it must be taken out of Iraq, or Iraq will remain a violent, lethal place for our troops and its people. As long as Iranian arms and expertise get into Iraq uninterrupted, Iraq will not become stable and our troops will have to remain there in large numbers. The Iranians want Iraq to remain unstable and they want us to have to keep a large force there dealing with the insurgents, terrorists and militias, which is why the ISG’s belief that chaos in Iraq is against Iran’s interests was met with such derision by the troops in Iraq. And believe me, it was.
Yet another report, this one from blogger Brian Preston, about the threat Iran represents to American success in Iraq.
Of course, like all such reports, it correctly describes the problem, and then runs for the hills before naming a solution.
The price of failure is that Iraq would become a true hub for an al Qaeda that would see its “victory” in Iraq as Somalia times 100. Iraqi oil dollars would fuel this new terrorist power as long as Iraq’s oil infrastructure holds out. From secure bases in Iraq, the terrorists’ aims and capabilities would be practically limitless. Faith in America as a war ally would be shaken from Europe to Asian and everywhere else.
I simply fail to understand how a smart guy like Bryan can write stuff like this. A victory for al-Qaeda? If we pulled out tomorrow, the Shia militias would slaughter most of the Sunnis in Iraq, or drive them out of the country. And if they needed help to do it, Iran would be happy to oblige. The Sunni al-Qaeda would have as much chance of surviving in an unfettered Shia Iraq as it would in Iran itself.
No matter how this comes out, al Qaeda isn’t the worry in Iraq. Iran is.
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You have a real knack for annoying your friends, Bill. “Running for the hills” eh? Nice.
The fact is, if we’re out of Iraq tomorrow Iran will move in–and so will the Saudis. Neither is strong enough to control every inch of Iraq. We can’t and neither can they. Al Qaeda will have a base there, most likely among the Sunnis whom the Saudis will have moved in to defend against the Shia Iraqis and the Iranians. Iraq is far more complex than you realize, Bill, and the aftermath of our pullout wouldn’t conform to the neat lines you envision.
Whether you agree with my assessment or not is obviously up to you and I don’t even claim to know all and see all, but you really ought to think things through before firing off accusations of cowardice against someone who has just returned from Baghdad. And if you have a real answer to the vexing issues in that part of the world, be kind enough to offer them rather than just snark at other bloggers. This post of yours is crass, classless work.
They don’t need to control every inch of Iraq. Just the important parts - where the oil is. And that they can do. Iraq is seventy percent Shia, Bryan, or hadn’t you noticed, and if that isn’t enough, Iran will be happy to help out.
The Saudis are entirely unable to project the sort of power you are talking about, unless we lift them there, and we aren’t going to do that.
As for accusations of cowardice, learn to read in context, Bryan. Your report ran for the hills from offering a solution to the problem you (correctly) named as Iran. It’s a rhetorical device, not an accusation of physical cowardice against you in the real world.
As for your having been to Iraq, good on you. On the other hand, that doesn’t make you into an omniscient observer, either.
As for solutions, I’ve been offering them for years. I don’t think you read me very often, so I’ll try not to worry too much about your little misdirected temper tantrum here.
I was hoping they’d let Michelle wander around the streets of Baghdad by herself a bit, you know–to get the ‘real story’ over there. Too bad.
www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com
Gee, and I was hoping you might trek over there yourself, get captured by your friends and allies in the Islamist cadres, and then get your testicles hacked off and stuffed into your mouth to stifle your screams during your video decapitation in full, barely living color.
Bryan and I may has some differences over how he misinterprets something I wrote, but he and Michelle have more smarts, talent, and courage than a stinking little pismire like you can even begin to comprehend. In your regard of them, you are pretty much in the position of a cockroach trying to comprehend a galaxy.
It’s beyond you. You are perfect proof of the maxim that one function of the stupidity of stupid people is that stupid people don’t even know they are stupid. You probably think I’m just being mean to you, instead of pointing out what a ludicrous dumbass you actually are.
UPDATE: Well, I am being mean to you, but that’s just because I enjoy kicking cripples around. It’s so easy, and at the same time so satisfying.
Bill, I read MinorAssLicker’s comment and was ready to respond. Unfortunately for him, you got there first. Heh.
Thanks. You gave me the best laugh that I’ve had all day.
I’m sick of the argument around al Qaeda. “Al Qaeda,” if it exists as an organization, is about 300 pissed off zealots with virtually no real organization or means to replicate 9/11. It’s a straw man, a contrivance to cover up the real reason we’re in Iraq which is to perpetuate and extend the Saudi’s oil hegemony into Iraq. Thanks to the brain surgeons in DC, we have nothing but bad choices in Iraq. Support the Royal family or allow Iran to slaughter every Sunni in the country. My take is let them have at it. We should support the Kurds, and let the Sunnis and Shia hack themselves to pieces. Either way it’s not worth another American soldier’s life. As far as nucular weapons in Iran, we need more info. I don’t trust Bush intel and trust Iranians less. Bombing the crap out them without some follow-on strategy and leverage just kicks over a bigger hornet’s nest.
Try hard as I might, I just don’t seem to be able to match your gift for imagery.
Moments like these are the exact reason DP requires frequent visitation.
Gosh, Bill, I don’t think you should sugar coat it for ol’ MinorZipper like that - just come right out and whack ‘im with what you really think…
OTOH, I guess you don’t want to crush a cockroach like that too hard - might give ‘em the idea that they actually have some nominal importance, or something…